There we go

xandorxerxes
Posts: 368
Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:43 pm

Re: There we go

Post by xandorxerxes » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:45 am

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im ... still-win/
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/fi ... -forecast/

This is the site from guy that told the media that Clinton wasn't a sure victory (he gave Trump around 28% shot). Part of the first article addresses how odds work - namely that even with a 99.9% chance, that doesn't mean it's impossible to hit that 1 in 1000 shot. The second article talks about their final poll models and gives different scenarios - like if the polling error is the same from 2016 (both towards Trump and towards Biden) - and other caveats like how early voting makes later polling difficult.

I don't see mass protests at a Trump win - I see mass protests at a Trump win if the courts intervene and do something like make the cutoff date today for votes to be counted. Votes have never been finished counting on election day in modern history.

From the second link above:
The lion’s share of people who voted for Gary Johnson or another third party candidate four years ago also say they plan to vote for Biden.
This includes me. I swore off the two big parties in 2009. Now I'm a hypocrite because I felt I had to vote Biden this year (I'm probably a hypocrite other ways too, just now including this one). Ranked choice can't come soon enough.

xandorxerxes
Posts: 368
Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2019 12:43 pm

Re: There we go

Post by xandorxerxes » Tue Nov 03, 2020 11:49 am

In fun, non-political news:

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/jpl/nasa-c ... twork-dish

Voyager 2, still going strong.

killacross
Posts: 339
Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:00 am

Re: There we go

Post by killacross » Tue Nov 03, 2020 7:18 pm

The classiest thing for The Donald to do if he loses is to tweet a meme of him to him

You're fired!

Digital Masta
Posts: 304
Joined: Tue Nov 19, 2019 10:56 pm

Re: There we go

Post by Digital Masta » Tue Nov 03, 2020 9:48 pm

At the end of the day my biggest concern is how it will embolden a certain group of people will become if Biden wins. They will see it as "Oh..okay so the rioting, looting and cancel culture works. Time to go in HARD!" Honestly, it will get worse regardless but I feel that it will be worse faster with Biden. This is all culture related stuff. Bernie and The Squad have already made it known they plan to put the pressure on Biden and this man has no spine.

Also personally I just don't want Kamala Harris as President because let's face it. Joe will either die or his mental state will have deteriorated to a point where he won't be able to function within 4 years time and this viper will be president. I just personally don't want this sociopath to get what she so desperately wants. 99% of politicians are dishonest but she is transparently dishonest and opportunitistic in the worst ways.

killacross
Posts: 339
Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:00 am

Re: There we go

Post by killacross » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:03 am

... Guess we're about to have our first female president and female president of color.

Would be funny if they hit ol Joe with Amendment 25 in a few months

Also pretty sure I'm about to lose that 2 comma status :| :?

... Time to find another place to work

xandorxerxes
Posts: 368
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Re: There we go

Post by xandorxerxes » Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:25 am

Don't count Trump out. My napkin math assumes percentages stay the same for uncounted votes (didn't know if more mail-ins are coming versus in-persons not being counted) and Biden only ekes it out. If the uncounted are predominantly mail-ins, then Biden gets more breathing room. That also depends on the postal service not being 2/3 as effective as it was 4 months ago, and that's exactly how it is in places like Atlanta and Philly. I've been operating under the assumption that Trump will win, so this is pretty much what I expected so far.

Y'all talking like Joe is senile - he's the same as 2008 as far as I can tell. If you told me one of them was losing it I'd pick Trump, since he has a hard time finishing a sentence. I just assume he's always been like that too.

You don't have to worry about the riots/looting being seen as a success, as it's what ended up neutering the movement. I expect riots to keep happening though unless something is actually done. Cancel culture is just free markets at work. I do expect the effectiveness to drop though, and I think we've started to see that happen.

Now for the fun part - let's see if the courts decide to do anything. Based mostly on the impeachment hearings, I don't expect Roberts to step in but I'm not sure if the others can and will force it or not.

San Goku
Posts: 510
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Re: There we go

Post by San Goku » Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:58 pm

^^

Biden is definitely not the same as 2008. Even my very Liberal wifey pointed it out lol.

Crazy how long this is taking. I think the last election we knew around 2am ish est time?

xandorxerxes
Posts: 368
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Re: There we go

Post by xandorxerxes » Wed Nov 04, 2020 1:56 pm

San Goku wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:58 pm
^^

Biden is definitely not the same as 2008. Even my very Liberal wifey pointed it out lol.

Crazy how long this is taking. I think the last election we knew around 2am ish est time?
What's different? I could certainly be missing something.

It actually took just as long last time to actually count the votes officially, but usually candidates can tell how things will go and the probable loser will concede. In this case we're probably going to have a few recounts - Georgia and Wisconsin specifically, if not also Nevada - so I wouldn't expect to know before the end of the week.

Digital Masta
Posts: 304
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Re: There we go

Post by Digital Masta » Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:37 pm

I tell you this much, regardless of the presidency this was a devasting blow to the woke. Turns out calling everyone racist, bigots don't work because the House and Senate races where a gigantic rebuke to the Democrats. Also, Trump apparently picked up numbers in essentially every single group compared to 2016 and actually lost a few white men surprisingly so if he loses it will because of that.

Also, every pollster on Earth needs a new job because they clearly have no idea wtf they are doing. If Biden wills it will be an incredibly small margin...this means the Trump effect is here and it's not going anywhere as far as the Republican party goes.

Basically this was a moral victory for conservatives and the Republicans without question.

killacross
Posts: 339
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Re: There we go

Post by killacross » Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:19 pm

ppfffbt...moral victory

The last time I paid attention and was genuinely interested was the TEA party movement. It didn't even take them a full two years to fizzle out. I suspect Biden steps down end of next year. Then Kamala will have a year to run...and will use that as justification for more people to the House/Senate
...and then comes the red wave

xandorxerxes
Posts: 368
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Re: There we go

Post by xandorxerxes » Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:32 pm

Digital Masta wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:37 pm
Also, every pollster on Earth needs a new job because they clearly have no idea wtf they are doing. If Biden wills it will be an incredibly small margin...this means the Trump effect is here and it's not going anywhere as far as the Republican party goes.
Check out the articles I linked above. The current outcome is one of the more common outcomes in their models (in fact... it's literally in the title of the article). There were only two surprises so far - Hispanics in Florida (yay misinformation) and Susan Collins in Maine. Yeah, if you followed only one polling organization you're probably shocked, but polls holistically captured this result. Even NBC of all sources was saying it would be close before the polls closed.

Trump should seriously send Bernie flowers or something, giving Trump even half a leg to stand on to shout "socialist" and "communist" every few seconds definitely helped flip the state to him.

What's really curious is how places like GA were pretty much right on the money, but places like WI were off by the whole margin. Generally it's a bit more even, and this also happened with pollsters being a bit more wary after 2016.
killacross wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:19 pm
ppfffbt...moral victory

The last time I paid attention and was genuinely interested was the TEA party movement. It didn't even take them a full two years to fizzle out. I suspect Biden steps down end of next year. Then Kamala will have a year to run...and will use that as justification for more people to the House/Senate
...and then comes the red wave
If D's had won all 3 I'd expect a wave, but with R's still in control of the Senate and presumably doing nothing I don't know what the wave would be against. It sounds like you guys are expecting super-authoritarian Kamala or something?

If Pelosi and McConnell could fuck right off I'd be a lot happier (still have my eye on you, Schumer).

Digital Masta
Posts: 304
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Re: There we go

Post by Digital Masta » Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:01 pm

At least if Biden wins the media will go back to not reporting on anything. So we at least won't have the politics thrown in our face at every single second of every single day. Another bonus being that it will also continue to show how full of crap the media is because it's not about them being critical with the President...that's fine. It's about them selectively doing it. Suddenly there won't be anything to talk about in the realm of politics (for them).

San Goku
Posts: 510
Joined: Fri Nov 22, 2019 7:41 am

Re: There we go

Post by San Goku » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:00 pm

Wow it looks like Biden is going to win? Biden 264 and Trump 214.

Edit

A couple swing states left for Trump.

San Goku
Posts: 510
Joined: Fri Nov 22, 2019 7:41 am

Re: There we go

Post by San Goku » Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:16 pm

Digital Masta wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:01 pm
At least if Biden wins the media will go back to not reporting on anything. So we at least won't have the politics thrown in our face at every single second of every single day. Another bonus being that it will also continue to show how full of crap the media is because it's not about them being critical with the President...that's fine. It's about them selectively doing it. Suddenly there won't be anything to talk about in the realm of politics (for them).
Amen to that

killacross
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Re: There we go

Post by killacross » Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:28 am

TAL is almost a year old!!

I remember I was in Puerto Rico last year (for our anniversary) when it came back online

xandorxerxes
Posts: 368
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Re: There we go

Post by xandorxerxes » Thu Nov 05, 2020 4:15 am

San Goku wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:16 pm
Digital Masta wrote:
Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:01 pm
At least if Biden wins the media will go back to not reporting on anything. So we at least won't have the politics thrown in our face at every single second of every single day. Another bonus being that it will also continue to show how full of crap the media is because it's not about them being critical with the President...that's fine. It's about them selectively doing it. Suddenly there won't be anything to talk about in the realm of politics (for them).
Amen to that
Part of that I think is Trump using Twitter often and as his official presidential channel. When he spits out 15 random things a day, and since he's the president the media eats things up, you're going to hear about it. Also over half the crap he spouts is made up, so you get yet another "that's not how it is" article. Like, don't inject disinfectant. Obama wasn't on social media, so the media didn't have as much to report on.

Edit: That's just me spouting an idea, I don't have any data for that.

I'll have to double check, but I was curious about numbers - Fox News had a ridiculous amount of Trump hits on the search.

NYT Trump 1/1/2017-today: 56K hits
NYT Obama 1/1/2009-1/1/2017: 96K hits
Fox Trump: 748K hits
Fox Obama 1/1/2009-1/1/2017: 166K hits

So if you watch Fox News primarily, you heard a lot about Trump. Also wow, some of these Obama articles didn't age well:
Opinion - Executive Order tyranny -- Obama plans to rule America with pen, phone
Trump wrote 37 more than Obama's first term.

San Goku
Posts: 510
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Re: There we go

Post by San Goku » Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:46 am

^^ You know you heard a lot about Trump if you primarily watched CNN too, usually in a hateful manner. I watched both at times to see the contrast.

xandorxerxes
Posts: 368
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Re: There we go

Post by xandorxerxes » Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:49 am

San Goku wrote:
Thu Nov 05, 2020 6:46 am
^^ You know you heard a lot about Trump if you primarily watched CNN too, usually in a hateful manner. I watched both at times to see the contrast.
Good call. I'll look on my desktop later, but on mobile I can't filter by date. Doesn't really matter though:

CNN: "Obama" yields 21564 hits, "Trump" yields 60066 when the filter is set to "politics," and they both have about double without the filter. Opinions are a second category, so maybe that will do it.

Also this is SUPER unscientific, mostly me just entertaining myself. Maybe a verrryyy loose correlation at best.

Don't pick on CNN too much though, you have more viewers than they do. That's just bullying.

Edit: also TV results will be different in general because of the 24/7 coverage, but in theory those searches included video results.

I'm still trying to figure out how Fox is getting those numbers. That's over 500 items per day.

Cane_The9lives
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Re: There we go

Post by Cane_The9lives » Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:33 pm

What are the odds he barricades himself in the White house and refuses to leave?

killacross
Posts: 339
Joined: Mon Nov 18, 2019 7:00 am

Re: There we go

Post by killacross » Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:58 pm

0%. Obviously.

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